About this site

The person, the process, the caveats

Equity Drift is one player checking his own study habits against his own hand database, in public. Here's who's behind it, how the numbers are produced, and where those numbers fall short.

Who writes this

Equity Drift is written by Nate Armstrong, a regulated-market Pot-Limit Omaha player — micro-to-small-stakes, Ontario iGaming market. No coaching credentials, no claimed edge beyond what a given post's data actually shows. The site exists because tracking software makes it possible to check a study habit against reality instead of just trusting it, and because writing the check-up down is a more useful study method than doing it silently.

This isn't a results-based brag site or a coaching funnel. When a mantra doesn't hold up, that's the post.

How the research works

Every post starts with a specific, falsifiable filter run against hand history logged in PokerTracker 4 — never a vibe or a memory of "how things usually go." The general shape:

  1. Pick one specific study mantra or rule of thumb.
  2. Define a PT4 filter that isolates exactly the situation the mantra describes.
  3. Report what the filtered hands actually show, including when it contradicts the mantra.
  4. Pull a small number of representative hands to illustrate the pattern, not to cherry-pick the best-looking ones.

Because Ontario's regulated online market ring-fences each site's player pool (a structural liquidity constraint, not a bankroll one), a smooth stake ladder doesn't really exist here — PLO2 is well-populated, PLO5 is thin, and PLO10 effectively doesn't run. Early posts draw on a combined PLO2/PLO5 dataset for that reason: it's the largest sample currently available, and it's used to prove out the filtering method itself while volume builds at higher stakes. Posts will move to higher-stakes data as specific findings call for it, and any post drawing on a different stake mix says so.

A note on sample sizes

Poker numbers over small samples are noisy, and this site's numbers are often small. A post built on 54 hands is a real, honestly-run check — it is not a statistically reliable win rate, and it should not be read as one. Where a finding is based on fewer hands than you'd want for confidence, that will be stated in the post rather than left for you to guess at from the stats sidebar.

Nothing on this site is financial advice, a guarantee of results, or a substitute for your own bankroll and risk decisions. Treat each post as a documented experiment on one player's data, not as a universal strategy claim.

Affiliate disclosure

Some links on this site may be affiliate or rakeback-partner links, meaning Equity Drift could earn a commission or rake-back share if you sign up or play through them, at no extra cost to you. Any such link will be labelled as such near where it appears. Affiliate relationships never determine what a post concludes — the data is pulled and reported the same way whether or not a link happens to be nearby, and a mantra that fails its own test gets reported as failing regardless of who might advertise here.

As of this writing, no affiliate links are live on this site. This page will be kept current if and when that changes.